What does conference realignment mean for fans in Washington state?
SEATTLE — It has been about a year since the college athletics story of the summer of 2022: UCLA and USC departing the Pac-12 for the Big Ten Conference.
They'll make the move in 2024, spurning their longtime regional rivals to play basketball games in the middle of winter in Piscataway, N.J. (Rutgers), or State College, Pa. (Penn State).
They're doing it all in the name of the welfare of student-athletes money.
So what does that mean for you here in the Pacific Northwest? For fans of the Huskies and Cougars?
A lot, actually.
There are three main things to track here:
Will the Pac-12 TV deal ever get done?
When we say money is the reason UCLA and USC are jumping ship to the Big Ten, what's meant by that is the lucrative TV deal that conference enjoys. As it stands, the Trojans and Bruins will make somewhere in the neighborhood of $75-$80 million per year from that TV deal.
In the Pac-12, that number is closer to $30 million.
From a strictly financial standpoint, the benefits are obvious.
That $30 million will be even difficult for the league to match now as it goes through those negotiations without the Los Angeles-based schools.
It has become obvious money is the primary, if not the only, motivator for the college administrators. It can be almost assured that if the Pac-12 deal is close to $50 million less per school by the year that the rest of the league may be looking for a change.
Can the Pac-12 stay together?
This is the tricky part, and the true question is how good that TV deal is for the Pac-12.
If it's even worse than the current payout, anything is on the table.
If it's just as good or even a little better, I still wouldn't feel like the league is 100% secure.
The Big 12 made a masterful play by essentially forcing its TV deal to be done first even though it wasn't due until after the Pac-12. That's less money for the networks to pay the west coast schools.
The Big 12 also could be targeting the Pac-12's "four corners" schools in Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado in an effort to deal a death blow to one of the other so-called power leagues.
The addition of UCLA and USC is a coup for the Big Ten, but the aforementioned travel will get old — and fast for those schools. At some point, they're going to need West Coast travel partners.
This is where the Huskies come in. UW and Oregon are the strongest remaining brands in the Pac-12 and would almost inevitably get a strong look from the Big Ten (the academics of Cal and Stanford can't be ignored, either).
Here's the kicker, too: it's not out of the realm of possibility those schools would take a fraction of the full Big Ten share as it would still be more than they make in the Pac-12.
Here's the thing: even the Washington State, Oregon State type of schools will keep playing, but it's impossible to ignore the athletic department deficits at WSU and other schools, thanks largely in part to a dysfunctional and uncertain Pac-12.
Any move may be too late, but they have to try.
Outside of the TV deal, what can the Pac-12 do?
The Pac-12 is going to expand, and it almost certainly will include San Diego State. In fact, an ESPN report says SDSU already informed its current home, the Mountain West, it intends to leave that league.
The Aztecs would be a strong addition and get the league back into Southern California.
But does anyone else move the needle? Even San Diego State — fresh off a national title game appearance in men's basketball — isn't quite USC and UCLA.
Are there any surprises up the league's sleeves?
Is any addition enough to save the league? That's truly how dire the situation could be.
The unfortunate part is we've seen some seismic moves the last couple years (Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC from the Big 12 was announced in 2021 and takes place this upcoming season) and I don't think the moves are done. Not by a long shot.
We mentioned the Big Ten looking west, but could they look east to a vulnerable ACC, too?
Some people like the chaos, but the regional pride and rivalries we've come to know and love are going to the wayside because of it.
Possibly forever.